The Chinese government is seeking to ban government officials from using iPhones and other foreign-branded products for official work. However, the ban is unlikely to harm Apple’s sales in China as its effects are “way overblown,” according to an analysis from Wedbush Securities
In a new investors note seen by Supercharged, Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives downplays the effect of China’s crackdown on iPhone use in government settings. The estimated number of affected future sales won’t likely exceed 500,000 iPhone units, with that figure described as a “worst case scenario” for Apple. To put that into perspective, Wedbush Securities predicts that Apple is set to sell around 45 million iPhone units in China over the next 12 months once the iPhone 15 is released.
On the recent China news over the last few days we believe in a worst case scenario any China government agency iPhone ban is way overblown as to quantify its less than ~500k iPhones of roughly 45 million we expect to be sold in China over the next 12 months.
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Wedbush Securities
Nevertheless, Apple’s thrust in China has been impressive over the past year or so. Wedbush Securities adds that the iPhone has gained around 3% market share in China over the last year and a half, with the upcoming iPhone 15 lineup giving Apple “incremental momentum” in the country and beyond. Overall, Apple is looking to initially ship 85 million iPhone 15 units in total, which was roughly the same number of units the company ordered last year with the launch of the iPhone 14.
We believe despite the loud noise Apple has seen massive share gains in China smartphone market as we estimate Cupertino has gained roughly 300 bps of market share in the key China market over the last 18 months with iPhone 15 giving Apple incremental momentum on this front.
Wedbush Securities
Apple is set to unveil the iPhone 15 lineup and more next Tuesday during its “Wonderlust” event. Today’s investors note also reiterates expected specs for the iPhone 15 lineup, including the expansion of the Dynamic Island to the base iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus, thinner display bezels for the iPhone 15 Pro models, new titanium chassis replacing stainless steel, 3nm A17 Bionic chip, and a new periscope zoom lens on the iPhone 15 Pro Max enabling up to 5x-6x optical zoom compared to 3x on other iPhones.
