Apple could be on track for a “mini super cycle” with iPhone sales later this year and beyond on the back of pent-up demand for the iPhone 15 lineup once it’s released later this month, according to Wedbush Securities in a new analysis.
Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives outlines his expectations for the sales performance of the iPhone 15 lineup in a new investors note seen by Supercharged. According to Ives, three in four iPhone 15 units sold will either belong to the iPhone 15 Pro or iPhone 15 Pro Max, representing a favorable shift for Apple as the company historically observed a 60%/40% shipment split between the Pro vs. base iPhone models with prior generations.
Earlier last month, reliable analyst Ming-Chi Kuo claimed that as much as 40% of all iPhone 15 shipments will belong to the iPhone 15 Pro Max in a move that reflects Apple’s expectations of its 6.7-inch premium iPhone to be the most popular model this year. This also represents a 10%-20% increase in shipments compared to the iPhone 14 Pro Max as most consumers remain inclined to get their hands on the latest and greatest iPhone model.
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Most of the shift is credited to China, which Ives describes as the “key to the success” of the upcoming iPhone. The shift could also be attributed to a slew of advanced and exclusive features headed for the iPhone 15 Pro devices, including thinner display bezels, new titanium chassis replacing stainless steel, 3nm A17 Bionic chip, and a new periscope zoom lens on the iPhone 15 Pro Max.
China key to the success of iPhone 15. We also expect a heavy iPhone Pro mix shift for iPhone 15 in a 75%/25% base model vs. the historical 60%/40% seen over the past few years in a major ASP tailwind for Cook & Co. especially out of China in a very heavy Pro/Max model mix.
Wedbush Securities
The iPhone 15 could represent a “mini super cycle” opportunity for Apple, as Wedbush Securities predicts that around a quarter of the iPhone’s 1.2 billion user base have not upgraded their devices in four years or more. This is in line with Kuo’s expectations of Apple looking to ship around 250 million iPhone units throughout 2024. Ives adds that as more users flock to the more expensive iPhone 15 Pro devices, the iPhone’s average selling price is looking to exceed the $900 mark.
Overall, this remains a golden installed base story with iPhone 15 set to launch as Apple further penetrates its unmatched ecosystem with our estimate that ~25% of its 1.2 billion installed base has not upgraded its iPhone in 4 years, and we also believe ASPs are bumping up towards a roughly $900/$925 setting up for a new “mini super cycle”
Wedbush Securities
Apple is expected to announce the iPhone 15 lineup and new Apple Watch models as soon as next Tuesday at its “Wonderlust” event. Beyond the iPhone 15 Pro, the company is expected to expand Dynamic Island to the base iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus, in addition to the inclusion of a USB-C port to replace Lightning.
